Changes in average annual temperature in Scandinavia to the north of the Polar Circle, or northern Barents region from the 1950s till the 2080s. The black non-continuous graph (Observed) describes the average measured temperature in the region evened out over 11 years.
The coloured graphs indicate future temperatures simulated by climate change models in the northern Barents region:
- The red dotted line (Large emissions) describe warming if the increasing greenhouse gas emissions are not restricted at all (SSP5-8.5 scenario).
- The blue continuous line (Medium emissions) is currently believed to be the most likely trend. It shows roughly what would happen if the commitments to emissions reductions already made by various countries were complied with fully but more stringent restrictions were not introduced. This would, for instance, mean that the EU and the United States would be carbon neutral in 2050, China in 2060 and India in 2070 (SSP2-4.5 scenario).
- The green dotted line (Small emissions) describes the situation presuming the introduction of extremely stringent emissions restrictions with a wide coverage from energy production, mobility, construction, food production and consumption, to which there is no extensive global commitment as yet (SSP1-2.6 scenario).
- The scale on the left shows deviations (in degrees) from average temperatures in 1961–1990. The scale on the right shows approximately how much the temperatures would have increased compared to pre-industrial times.
Information on the underlying calculations of the graphs
(a) Changes based on observations (black graph)
The graph is based on E-OBS analyses produced in European cooperation (Haylock et al., 2008, version 23). The analyses are shown in a grid and they were calculated on the basis of temperatures observed in different parts of Europe. Based on the temperatures produced by the analysis, the average temperatures of each year were calculated; based on these average temperatures, deviations from average temperatures in 1961–1990 were calculated; and on the basis of these values, regional averages were produced for the Cap of the North (area to the north of the Polar Circle in Finland, Norway and Sweden). Finally, a moving average over 11 years was calculated based on these regional averages for temperature deviations.
(b) Changes based on modelling results (coloured graphs)
These graphs are based on the averages of the results produced by 28 climate change models calculated by us (Ruosteenoja and Jylhä, 2021). On the basis of the modelling results, deviations compared to 1961–1990 and the regional averages for Northern Scandinavia were calculated as in point a.
(c) Temperature deviation scales of the figure
The figure shows two scales indicating temperature deviations. The scale on the left is the ‘actual situation’, and it describes both the observed and modelled deviation from the average temperature in 1961–1990.
The scale on the right, on the other hand, describes the estimated change in temperatures compared to pre-industrial times. As there is actually no accurate information on temperatures in that period, this really is just a rough estimate. In fact, this scale does not differ very much from the one on the left, as the period 1961–1990 was relatively cold; at this point, the greenhouse gas emissions had not yet warmed the climate to a great extent, and besides, the harsh winters of the late 1960s and mid-1980s fall into this period.
Haylock MR, Hofstra N, Klein Tank AMG, Klok EJ, Jones PD, New
M. 2008. A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface
temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006. J. Geophys. Res.
113(D20): D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD010201.
Ruosteenoja K, Jylhä K. 2021. Projected climate change in Finland
during the 21st century calculated from CMIP6 model
simulations. Geophysica 56: 39-69.